We can "win" in Iraq. But it takes a bigger idea, and far greater leap of faith and imagination than any mainstream politician is proposing out loud.
The win/win scenario is offering Iraq statehood - to become the 51st state (or 51-53 if they so vote) in the United States of America.
If you look at any of the current proposals about how to deal with the US involvement in Iraq, we are no longer talking about winning. We are only talking about damage control. Five years out, what might Iraq look like?
Five years from now
Not a pro-western democracy. Even the neo-cons are starting to concede that's not a real possibility.
The best case scenario - barring a radical departure of events - is Muqtada al-Sadr (or his hand-picked stooge) is in charge of the country, and they are essentially a client state of Iraq. This is good only because the United States will have been asked to vacate the premises, and someone will be clearly in charge. Iran, for all of its' faults, has a functioning government that is quasi-democratic, and so will its' vassal.
One notch below that on the horror scale is a dictatorship of Malaki - or whoever whacked Maliki to get the job. There's a good portion of Iraq that would rally behnd such a strongman - as long as he keeps the peace. By every standard of measurement, Iraqi's were better off under Hussein than they are right now. Seriously, pick a quality of life standard: they were all better numbers under Hussein.
Further down the tube, we have the status quo - a low-level civil war with the US and a handful of allies barely keeping the lid on only by open-ended occupation.
Finally, we have the chaos and full-on civil war that is widely predicted (particularly by neo-cons) if we were to pull out suddenly. This, of course, is simply the preliminary rounds to someone establishing a dictatorship over whatever is left of the country.
The only guarantee of peace and stability in Iraq would require ten times the current US leve of involvement militarily, financially, and politically. The only way we could justify that, is offering them statehood.
How it works
The United States guarantees the security of a national referendum (in Iraq) on joining the union. It's an up or down vote. They'll be some time to campaign. They reject the proposal, we stay at the status quo. They accept it, we pour in whatever assets we have to to put together another constitutional convention - this time for a state constitution. We would hae to provide some guarantee that any reasoable constitution would pass through Congress. Congress would then admit Iraq as a full member of the United States of America (which requires a vote on their part).
This is a tough sell - to put it mildly - on both sides, and we'll address that as this blog goes on.
What they get
Civilization. Now. Guaranteed, financed and enforced by the most dominant power on the planet - of which they are now a part.
Five years out - they look a lot more like Texas than Afghanistan.
What we get
A diverse, educated population with a variety of resources, floating on a big pool of oil - all for fire-sale prices. Sure, its' a lot of money up front - but we're paying that anyway. Why rent when you can own?
East Germany was a basket-case when it finally re-joined West Germany, but now the united country is the economic engine of Europe.
Iraqi oil = domestic oil. That shouldn't be what it's about - but it is.
Finally, we totally hose Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, France and Russia, more or less in that order, and that can't be all bad.
